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In the analysis of macro-social systems, it is easy (after the fact) to identify system shocks (World Wars, changes of political regime, Pandemics, etc.) but it is generally not possible to predict the shocks. In many cases, we do not have enough high equality data to measure the full impacts of historical shocks. What we can do, however, is estimate a dynamic systems model based on whatever data is available and then simulate the model to (1) see how well it tracks to data and (2) explore how the model responds  to shocks imposed on the simulation.


Neoclassical Growth Theory




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